Essex County’s market is still firmly in seller territory, but January brought a subtle shift that creates fresh openings for both buyers and sellers who know how to read between the lines.
Why It Still Feels Like a Seller’s Market
Months of inventory in Essex County is sitting at just 1.52, which is extremely low and signals that well‑priced homes are still getting snapped up quickly. Homes are also closing at a strong 109.1% of list price on average, meaning buyers are routinely offering above asking to win. With a median of 25 days on market, properties are not lingering—motivated buyers are acting decisively when something good hits the MLS.
For homeowners, this backdrop means you still have the upper hand: limited supply, strong demand, and buyers who are willing to stretch if the home shows well and is priced strategically.
What Changed From Late 2025
Here’s where the story gets more nuanced: the median sold price slipped from about $650,000 in December to $615,000 in January. That drop doesn’t mean the market is crashing. Instead, it suggests buyers pushed back a bit on pricing at the end of the year, and more mid‑range homes likely made up January’s closed sales. At the same time, months of inventory climbed 21.6% month over month, which means there are simply more options on the shelf than there were a few weeks ago.
Zooming out, Essex County property values are still up about 6.7% over the past 12 months, so the longer‑term trend is one of steady appreciation, not decline. This combination—slightly softer month‑to‑month prices but strong year‑over‑year gains—is exactly what a “cooling but still competitive” market looks like (RPR).
Why Buyers Should Lean In Now
For buyers who felt completely shut out in 2021–2023, this version of a seller’s market is more workable. The small dip in median sold price and the increase in inventory give you a bit more breathing room to compare homes instead of writing an offer on the driveway at the open house. On top of that, national and New Jersey forecasts suggest mortgage rates in 2026 will generally hover in the low‑6% range, with potential modest declines if inflation keeps easing.
At the national level, homes are taking longer to sell—around two months on average—because buyers are more cautious and selective in the face of still‑elevated costs. Essex County is moving faster than that, but the broader mood of “careful, not frantic” is beginning to show up here too. This means buyers who are prepared, pre‑approved, and realistic on price have a better chance of getting into a home without the frenzy of the pandemic years.
Why Sellers Still Have a Strong Window
Even with that slight pullback in sold prices, new listing sellers are not discounting. In fact, the median list price for new listings in January jumped to $639,000, up about 18.3% month over month. That tells us homeowners are confident in their equity and are testing the market at higher price points, and buyers are still rewarding homes that feel “move‑in ready.” Inventory may be rising, but at 1.52 months it is nowhere near a balanced market, so quality listings still stand out and sell with leverage.
Statewide projections point to modest price growth and gradually rising inventory in 2026, which means we’re likely heading toward a more balanced environment over time, not an overnight shift. For sellers, this year may represent a sweet spot: you can capitalize on several years of appreciation and strong demand before the market fully normalizes.
How I’d Guide You as Your Local Agent
Here’s how I’d translate these numbers into a plan if we were sitting at my office in Caldwell talking about your next move:
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If you’re thinking of selling in 2026: I’d help you price near the higher end of the current range, where new listings are landing, while still being grounded in what’s actually closing at around $615,000 in the median. We’d focus on presentation—staging, repairs, photography—so that buyers feel justified paying above list in a market where homes are closing at about 109% of asking.
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If you’re hoping to buy this year: I’d walk you through how the recent price dip and rising inventory might give you a bit more negotiation power on inspection credits or closing dates, even if you still need to be competitive on price. We’d also look at how today’s low‑6% mortgage rates affect your monthly payment and what a future small rate drop—or further price stabilization—would actually mean for your budget in real dollars.
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If you’re not sure whether to wait: I’d encourage you to think less about “timing the market” and more about timing your life—job stability, school needs, commute, and lifestyle. Forecasts suggest 2026 will be more balanced than the last few years, with buyers gaining some negotiating power but no expectation of dramatic price drops in New Jersey.
When you understand that Essex County is both easing and still competitive, you can approach your next move with clarity instead of fear—whether you’re unlocking equity as a seller or trying to plant roots here as a buyer.
If you have any real estate needs, I’m the realtor for you! You can always reach me at tracyYchan@gmail.com or my cell at 973-476-8097.
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