Not too long ago, the checklist for buying a home was pretty straightforward. Price, location, school district, commute. Maybe a quick look at the neighborhood. But the conversation has shifted in a real and undeniable way, and buyers here in New Jersey are asking questions during home searches that simply were not on anyone’s radar a decade ago.
Climate risk is now part of the purchase decision, and honestly, it should be.
If you need a vivid, real-world example of what climate risk looks like when it reaches its worst possible outcome, look no further than Rancho Palos Verdes in California. This is not a hypothetical or a distant scenario. This is a wealthy coastal community where the ground beneath homes has been literally moving, and no amount of money has been able to stop it.
NASA and city monitoring revealed that land in the Portuguese Bend area was sliding at a rate of 5 to 9 inches per week — far faster than the inches-per-year rate seen previously. Heavy rains in 2023 and 2024 reactivated dormant slide areas, accelerating ground movement. Homes collapsed, fissures cracked roads, buckled walls, and damaged utilities.
As recently as February 2026, the Abalone Cove Landslide accelerated by an average of five percent to approximately 2.24 inches per week, while the Portuguese Bend landslide accelerated by about 7.1% to roughly one and a half inches per week, with the city believing that recent rainfall was the most likely contributing factor.
The city’s landslide response is expected to cost $64.4 million by the end of June 2026, and Rancho Palos Verdes has applied for a $48.7 million FEMA Hazard Mitigation Grant for the Portuguese Bend Landslide Remediation Project. Even with all of that money and effort, the land keeps moving. Homeownership should never come with that kind of uncertainty underneath it.
What is happening in California is an extreme case, but the broader data tells us that climate vulnerability in the housing market is not just a coastal California problem.
More than one in four U.S. homes, amounting to $12.7 trillion in real estate, faces at least one type of severe or extreme climate risk, including floods, hurricanes, and wildfires, according to a Realtor.com Climate Risk Report. Nearly 6 million homes valued at $3.4 trillion face severe flooding risk over the next 30 years, roughly 2 million more than FEMA currently estimates, because federal flood maps do not account for heavy rainfall and future climate changes.
Flooding, fire, drought, and other weather-related risks have always been a danger to property and consumer wellbeing. However, with the changing climate, these risks are increasing in intensity and frequency, impacting the likelihood of damage, the cost of utilities, the price of insurance, and the potential resale value of homes.
The insurance picture is equally sobering. Insurance premiums are surging in high-risk markets, with Miami homeowners paying an average of 3.7% of a home’s value in annual premiums — the nation’s highest rate. The sharp rise in premiums, increased frequency of disaster events, and growing difficulty in securing coverage are reshaping not only where people live but also whether housing remains affordable in vulnerable regions.
This is not just someone else’s problem. Here in New Jersey, climate risk is a very real and growing part of the housing conversation.
Sea levels along the Jersey Shore have risen about a foot and a half since the early 1900s, more than twice the global average according to Rutgers University, as climate change drives ocean levels higher and the land itself sinks. In places like coastal New Jersey, sea levels are rising and the land is sinking, and experts say the safest option is to move people out of the riskiest flood zones, though that is not always practical.
Research from Rutgers University found that New Jersey can expect to see roughly five feet of sea level rise by the end of the century under a moderate-emissions scenario, and an estimated 62,000 homes along New Jersey’s coast will experience chronic flooding by 2050, leaving tens of thousands of homeowners facing skyrocketing flood insurance rates, loss of property value, and eventual displacement.
New Jersey has responded with new policy. The state unveiled new tools and technologies designed to provide prospective homebuyers and renters with critical information needed to make better informed decisions on where they choose to live and how best to protect their property from flood damage, with flood disclosure requirements described as some of the strongest in the nation.
The shift in buyer behavior is measurable and well documented. It is not just cautious buyers making different choices — even investors and buyers with a high tolerance for risk are stepping back from properties flagged for climate vulnerability.
When told about risks from flooding, prospective homebuyers were significantly less likely to make offers on vulnerable properties, according to research from Redfin involving more than 17 million prospective buyers. Redfin’s chief economist noted that as more buyers become aware of climate risk, homes in endangered areas will likely receive fewer offers, causing home values to fall.
A 2025 study shows that 50% of Gen Z and 56% of Millennials prioritize climate risks when deciding where to live, compared to 31% of Boomers and 40% of Gen X. The next generation of buyers is not going to ignore this the way previous generations may have.
As insurance becomes harder to secure in risk-prone areas, markets in lower-risk regions are expected to see stronger home price growth due to climate-driven migration. Where people choose not to buy matters just as much as where they do.
The good news is that information is available if you know where to look, and asking the right questions before you make an offer costs you nothing.
Start with flood history. Past flood damage can be hidden, costly to repair, and a sign of future risk. Some major real estate websites already include flood risk and other climate risks in their listings, and it is important to check whether your state has disclosure requirements for past flooding.New Jersey now has strong disclosure laws, which means sellers are required to be transparent about flood risk in ways they were not before.
Think about insurance before you fall in love with a property. A professor of real estate at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School advises prospective buyers to consider whether they can still afford the property if insurance premiums double or triple. That is a question worth sitting with before you sign anything.
And remember that being outside a FEMA flood zone does not mean you are safe from flooding. On average, 40% of National Flood Insurance Program flood insurance claims occur outside of high-risk flood areas. The maps are outdated in many places, and the weather is no longer behaving the way those maps were drawn to reflect.
This is one of the most important reasons to work with a licensed real estate professional rather than navigating a home search on your own through public websites. When you browse listings on Zillow or similar platforms, you are seeing a curated, surface-level view of a property. As your realtor, I have access to a much deeper layer of information that simply does not appear on those sites.
That includes seller disclosures, which require sellers to reveal known issues with the property, including past flooding, water intrusion, and structural concerns. I can pull FEMA flood maps and cross-reference them against the actual property boundaries, not just the general area. I have access to flood zone certifications, historical MLS data that may show prior price reductions tied to climate-related issues, and community-level information about drainage, municipal infrastructure, and known problematic streets or neighborhoods. I can also connect you directly with insurance professionals early in the process, before you fall in love with a house, so you know exactly what coverage will cost before you commit.
The difference between what is publicly available and what I can access on your behalf is significant. That information could easily be the difference between a sound investment and a costly mistake.
None of this means you should stop looking for a home. It means you should look with better information. The buyers who are winning right now are the ones who understand what they are buying into, not just the price and the square footage, but the full picture of long-term risk and long-term value.
Climate risk is not a reason to sit out the market. It is a reason to have a more informed conversation about which properties make sense for your future.
If you are searching for a home in New Jersey and you want someone in your corner who will help you ask the right questions and look at the full picture — including what the property looks like 10 and 20 years from now — let’s talk. Reach out today and let’s start that conversation.
You can always reach me at tracyYchan@gmail.com or my cell at 973-476-8097.
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